The Crackdown Continues

July 18, 2006

The Crackdown Continues

By Robert Padavick
Yahoo! News

With its legendary voice for freedom still in detention and a military regime tightening its grip on power, is there any hope for democracy in Myanmar?

On June 19, Nobel laureate and pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi celebrated her 61st birthday alone, still under house arrest in Myanmar. It capped another tumultuous year in which both she and the nation seem even further away from freedom.

Just weeks earlier, hope had swirled among her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), and the international community that she would be released. But the ruling military junta in Myanmar dashed those hopes on May 27, extending her house arrest for another year.

Since being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991, Suu Kyi has risen far beyond her status as leader of the NLD to a legendary global figure, known as the fearless voice of the fight for democracy in Myanmar, the country formerly known as Burma.

Every step of the way she has faced harassment, with the regime keeping her in confinement for 10 of the last 17 years, effectively cut off from her party and the rest of the world.

Now, as the regime, known officially as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), continues to tighten its grip on the Burmese people and concentrate its power, hopes for Suu Kyi and for progress toward democracy in Myanmar seem increasingly dim.

The daughter of Burmese independence hero Aung San, Suu Kyi spent much of her adult life studying and working abroad. She was propelled into Burmese politics when she returned to the country to care for her sick mother. It was 1988 and student demonstrations against the regime were raging. Suu Kyi formed the NLD and began publicly calling for democracy _ her first speech, in August of that year, was before a half-million people in Rangoon (now Yangon).

Aung Din was there in 1988. One of the student leaders heading the protests, he led a group of 100 students protecting Suu Kyi during the speech.

"I remember her sitting with us at the back of the stage, after her speech, relaxing among the students," says Aung Din, now the policy director and co-founder of the U.S. Campaign for Burma. "The atmosphere in 1988 was like a bomb about to explode. General dissatisfaction among the population on General Ne Win's government was mounting day after day."

A bomb did explode in 1988, but in the form of a violent government crackdown that killed an estimated 3,000 people. Ne Win had resigned in the meantime, and the generals consolidated power in the form of a new military junta, billed as the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). They changed the name to the SPDC in 1997.

For Suu Kyi and the NLD, it was the beginning of an ebb-and-flow fight for democracy that has seen occasional glimpses of hope quashed by the regime.

Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest in 1989, yet the NLD soared to a landslide victory in parliamentary elections in 1990. The military refused to recognize the results and began sweeping action against the NLD, rounding up leaders and closing offices. Suu Kyi fought on over the next decade, in and out of house arrest. Events came to a head in 2003 when a pro-government militia attacked her convoy during a journey outside the capital. As many as 70 people were killed in the attack, and Suu Kyi was detained yet again.

Despite the regime's campaign to silence her _ or perhaps, because of it _ Suu Kyi today remains the sole figure for nonviolent struggle, democratic change and political reconciliation in Myanmar. And the regime, now led by Senior Gen. Than Shwe, knows it.

"She has been seized upon as a symbol of democracy, of honesty, of a new peaceful Burma that will be governed by the people _ these are the things the military wants to destroy," says Josef Silverstein, a professor emeritus at Rutgers University and author of several books about Burma.

Myanmar's leaders play up fears of chaos in order to keep a tight grip on the country, Silverstein says. "That justifies the military maintaining its power. It has to hold the country together, and it can only hold it together by force of arms."

As international pressure mounts on Myanmar, with the United States campaigning for a resolution in the U.N. Security Council calling for Suu Kyi's release and democratic reform, the ruling junta seems to be digging in further.

In a sudden and perplexing move, the regime announced late last year that it was moving the capital from Yangon to Pyinmana, in central Myanmar. The shift is ongoing, with government buildings springing up in front of mystified locals in the remote region.

Explanations for the move differ. Many reports even cite Than Shwe's tendency to heed the advice of fortune tellers (as many in Myanmar do) as a major factor.

Other reasons include a fear of a domestic uprising similar to the one in 1988 _ which could be weathered from an isolated base _ and the desire for a more centralized seat of power from which to control the country's ethnic minorities.

Silverstein says the move also reflects the military's belief that "the U.S. is leading a world movement to destroy it."

"By retreating to this impregnable fortress that they're about to try to build, (the military leaders believe) they'll be able to weather the next charge, wherever it comes from," he says.

But Myanmar does have some allies, Silverstein says: "China and Russia are two crucial friends."

And both are veto-wielding powers on the Security Council. China's ties to Myanmar run deep. Trade between the two nations amounted to $1.145 billion in 2004, according to the Chinese government, and China is a major military supplier to Myanmar.

China's reluctance for a change in the status quo is the main obstacle in the Bush administration's push for a resolution in the United Nations.

"I would say mostly our discussions are about our disagreements with China," says U.S. mission spokesman Richard Grenell.

Meanwhile, the regime continues to promote its "road map," a plan it says will eventually lead to democracy. The first step is a national convention to draft a new constitution. But the NLD is boycotting the convention as long as Suu Kyi remains under house arrest, and much of the international community has labeled the process a sham, especially without NLD involvement.

Is there any way out of the stalemate?

"I think the regime feels that they're pretty much in the driver's seat right now. They've got everything under control," says Robert Helvey, a retired U.S. colonel who has taught nonviolent resistance to groups around the world, including in Myanmar. "What I think they fear most of all is something suddenly happening, which is going to cause everything to unravel."

The deteriorating economy could be a catalyst for change. Although Myanmar is rich in natural resources, the vast majority of its citizens are poor. Inflation is out of control, with the government raising its own salaries and flooding the market with cash. Even the price of rice is rising.

Economics drove the uprising of 1988, Silverstein notes. "The one real uprising by the people ... came largely because the Burmese military government had really hit them very hard in the pocketbook."

Aung Din says conditions are similar today to what he saw in 1988: "There is general dissatisfaction among the population."

But there is a major difference: Aung San Suu Kyi, the one person with the ability lead the charge, remains isolated in her Yangon villa. For now, all her party can do is hope for small steps.

"The NLD, they are very flexible," Aung Din says. "They are asking the military junta to talk. But it is a regime which refuses to talk."

As long as Suu Kyi remains under house arrest, it is clear the regime is also refusing to listen.

(Robert Padavick works with Kevin Sites for the "Kevin Sites in the Hot Zone" Web site. The project is currently spending one year covering every armed conflict in the world. Find more reporting at http://hotzone.yahoo.com.)

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