Burma: Standing at a Turning Point

BURMA: Standing at a Turning Point

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
B1 Conference, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006
Tuesday, April 8, 2008, 1:30-3:00 PM

Aung Din
Executive Director
U.S. Campaign for Burma
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Ladies and Gentlemen,

Thank you very much for gathering here today. I appreciate the CSIS and the Vital Voices for organizing this event on Burma, which is now reaching at a turning point as mentioned by the title of today discussion. Derek, I thank you very much for your kind introduction.

I would like to touch the current situation in Burma and what will happen next.

Brief Summary on the Situation in Burma

On Feb 9, 2008, the Burmese military junta announced that it will hold the nationwide referendum in May 2008 to approve its constitution and a multi-party general election in 2010. Since then, some international actors assume that this will be the end of the struggle for Burmese democracy movement, led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy, the election winning party in the 1990 general election. Even some Western governments are beginning to find ways to get involved in Burma during the expected transitional period, from when the junta approves the constitution in May 2008 to the new elections in 2010.

From the perspective of the Burmese democracy movement, this is not the end of the struggle and our non-violent movement continues, even with a stronger momentum. We also believe that the upcoming referendum will be a greater chance for us to remobilize the masses to challenge the junta.

When Burmese democracy movement called for the junta to engage in a meaningful and time-bound dialogue with the NLD and ethnic representatives for a mutually acceptable solution, we also determined to challenge or block the junta’s seven-step roadmap. We have tried to discredit and undermine every step of the roadmap in legitimate ways. The NLD left the National Convention, the first step of the junta’s roadmap, in 1995 and then claimed that the National Convention was not free, fair or democratic. The NLD decided again to boycott the National Convention in 2005, when it was resumed, as the junta didn’t allow for free and democratic discussion. The junta completely jumped over step 2 and went to step three, which is to draft the constitution with its hand-picked persons. The Burmese democracy movement called for the junta to include representatives of the NLD and ethnic groups in the Constitution Drafting Commission and so had the United Nations. The junta still rejected the request and then they declared that they had completed the constitution writing.

Now, we are reaching to the fourth step of the roadmap, which is to approve the constitution through the nationwide referendum. This step is the most important part of the junta’s roadmap. If it can hold the referendum successfully and get the constitution, it can continue the other remaining steps and complete the roadmap successfully. However, if we are able to reject the constitution through the referendum, then we will be able to reject the whole roadmap and we believe that the junta will have no choice, but to negotiate with democracy forces. The junta also realizes how important this referendum is for them to rule the country forever.

Here are what the junta is doing to ensure that it wins.

(1) The junta has not released the draft constitution yet to the voters as of April 7th, so the people will not have sufficient times to study it.

(2) The junta’s ministers, divisional and regional commanders and USDA leaders are traveling all over the country and pressuring civil servants and the people to vote for the constitution.

(3) Various levels of referendum conducting commissions are formed with the junta’s hand-picked persons.

(4) The junta has also created a climate of fear for those who dare to oppose their plan. Decree 5/96, the law that punishes anyone who tries to disturb the constitution writing process with 20-years imprisonment, is still active. A new referendum law also imposes three-year imprisonment for those who criticize the constitution. Arrest and attack of the democracy activists by the junta security forces and its militias continues daily.

(5) To make sure that it wins, the junta has also twisted a provision, regarding the approval of the constitution. In the basic principles adopted by the national convention, Chapter (XIV) Transitory Provisions, Article 1 states that "This Constitution shall come into force throughout the Union after its adoption in a referendum by the assenting votes of more than half of all the people who have the right to vote." However, in the draft constitution, Chapter (XIV), Article 441 states "This Constitution shall come into force throughout the Union after its adoption in a referendum by the majority votes of more than half of all the people who have the right to vote." From this twist, the constitution is to be approved by the majority of more than 50% of the eligible voters. That means the junta needs only little more than 8 million votes to approve its constitution, as estimated numbers of eligible voters in Burma today are about 32 millions.

(5) To ensure that it wins, the junta also makes a provision of eligible voters in the referendum law. According to the referendum law, Chapter (V) Preparing Voting Rolls, Section 11 (a), the junta allows associate citizens and temporary certificate holders to vote in the referendum. No country allows associate citizens and temporary certificate holders (equivalent to the US permanent residents and legal residents with temporary visa) to participate in the referendum and the elections. There are more than two million Chinese in Burma who migrated from Yunnan Province in China since 1988. As favored by the junta, these Chinese immigrants are doing business very well and holding full and associate Burmese citizen cards, and they will surely vote for the constitution. Combination with military personals and families, as well as some USDA members, the junta can easily organize more then 50% of the voters to go to the polling stations and get enough votes to approve the constitution.

Here are what the democracy forces are doing to reject the constitution.

(1) NLD issued three statements on Apr 2, 2008. One statement has called for the people of Burma to go to polling stations without fail and decisively cast a “NO” vote. Another statement highlights the undemocratic principles in the constitution and explains why the NLD is unable to accept it. The NLD also issued facts to be known regarding the referendum and fraud.

(2) Three other important groups in Burma: the 88 Generation Students, the All Burma Monks’ Alliance and Members of Parliament also are calling for the people of Burma to VOTE AGAINST the constitution.

(3) Activists are distributing T-shirts, pamphlets, posters, stickers, and VCDs and CDs which contain cartoons, literature, performances, satire acts, songs and images that urge the people of Burma to “VOTE NO”.

(4) Activists are also reaching out to the people door to door, explaining why they need to reject the constitution.

(5) Activists are also sending messages to the people of Burma to cast a “NO” vote in the referendum through Burmese radio services, such as BBC, VOA, RFA and DVB.

(6) Activists are also setting up teams and mechanisms to monitor the polling stations and expose the fraud and irregularities.

(7) The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), one of the ethnic cease-fire groups with over ten-thousand strong armed forces, issued an instruction to its members not to participate in the referendum. It is a sign that KIO will not accept the constitution and will not surrender its arms after the referendum.

(8) The New Mon State Party (NMSP), another ethnic-cease fire group with about ten-thousand strong forces, also issued a statement in which it called for the junta to not hold the referendum without having a tripartite dialogue and revise the draft constitution by discussion with all democratic organizations and ethnic groups.

(9) The Shan State Restoration Council, political arm of the Shan State Army (South), an ethnic armed group, also called for all ethnic cease-fire groups to reject the constitution in the upcoming referendum.

(10) Buddhist monks are also reaching out to every household and urging them to cast a “No” vote.

Public Opinion

According to various sources, the public is well aware of the current situation and the junta’s plan to legalize the military dictatorship with the sham constitution. Even some civil servants and family members of the military said that they will vote against the constitution, if there is a chance of secret voting. Several ethnic cease-fire groups will also ask the people in their respective areas to vote against the constitution. Most of the people are not allowed to study the draft constitution yet; however, they knew that this constitution does not bring any good to their lives. They all know that their “No” vote is not only to the constitution, but also to the military junta.

There are some people who will vote for the constitution due to the pressure of the junta or with the belief that something is better than nothing. Some ethnic groups, who have already surrendered, will also vote for the constitution. Some also think that even if they vote against it, the junta will twist the result and claim the victory. Therefore they feel that however they vote; it does not count.

Possible Scenario in Post Referendum Period

We believe that the majority of people will go to the polling stations and cast a “No” vote decisively, as organized by democracy forces led by NLD, and as they don’t believe in the junta. However, we also believe that the junta will try to claim a victory by cheating and fraud, as the Central Commission in Nay Pyi Daw will do the total counting of the votes.

As we have seen in the current elections in Zimbabwe, civilians will play an important role in the referendum in Burma, not only casting a “No” vote, but also counting votes from all the polling stations and producing the results against the official counting. We believe that we can expose the cheatings by the authorities, produce the real results and claim the junta’s result as a sham.

The post-referendum period will be very important and the turning point for Burma. Hugh confrontation between the military junta, who will claim the victory by cheating the results of the referendum, and the people of Burma, who will be cheated and demand for the justice, will begin. Mass movement will be organized to call for the junta to abandon its one-sided roadmap, respect the real desire of the people of Burma, and begin negotiating with the democracy forces led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Ethnic cease-fire groups will support the mass movement and even some military officials may call for their masters to cooperate with the opposition. If there is stronger pressure from the international community, the junta will have no choice, but to engage in a meaningful and time-bound dialogue with the democratic opposition.

We are not dreaming

However, the people of Burma know very well that they can’t count too much on the international community and the UN Security Council, which is divided between the U.S-led democratic countries and China-led group of defenders of dictators. They know that the destiny of their country is in the hands of them and they are the one who will decide their own future. On March 26, two prominent dissident groups which led the peaceful protests in August and September in Burma last year, the All Burma Monks’ Alliance (ABMA) and the 88 Generation Students issued a statement, in which they claimed that, (Quote) “Nonetheless, the people of Burma will stand on their own feet and confront the injustices and oppression of the military junta by peaceful means. We all are determined to “VOTE NO” on the junta’s sham constitution in the upcoming referendum. As the military junta is aggressively and desperately pressuring the people to vote in favor of the constitution, our challenge to reject it will surely be met with a bloody response by the junta. Our vote “No” is not only to the sham constitution, but also to the junta. With or without the help of the UN Security Council, we are ready to determine our own future. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi recently told us to “hope for the best, prepare for the worst”. This call echoes the message of her father our National Independence Hero U Aung San. We are prepared to confront the worst. We are working for truth and justice, and we will prevail” (Unquote).

Let me end my presentation here. Thank you.

Aung Din
Executive Director
U.S. Campaign for Burma
aungdin@uscampaignforburma.org

Suggestions to the US Government

In Public Statements and Policy Speeches, US Government should:

(1) Denounce the referendum as an illegitimate process.

(2) Denounce the junta for its rejections of the recommendations made by the UN General Assembly resolutions, UN Human Rights Council resolutions and the UN Security Council Presidential Statement.

(3) Call for the junta to stop its one-sided actions and start a meaningful and time-bound dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi, the NLD and ethnic representatives.

(4) Call for the junta to stop arresting activists and release all political prisoners.

(5) Call for the junta to stop attacking ethnic populations in eastern Burma.

(6) Call for China, India and ASEAN to apply serious pressure on the junta to comply with the recommendations made by the UN Security Council.

(7) Call for the EU to impose financial and banking sanctions against the generals, their family members and crony businessmen.

(8) Call on the International Community to not recognize the junta’s constitution.

In Quite Diplomacy, US Government should:

(1) Call for China, India and ASEAN to publicly or privately call for the junta to create necessary conditions for a free and fair referendum, by international standards, including releasing all political prisoners, allowing all parties and people to campaign for and against the draft constitution, lifting all restrictive measures and laws, inviting international observers and media, before the referendum.

(2) Call for China, India and ASEAN to publicly or privately ask the junta to respect the decision of the people of Burma, if they reject the constitution.


(3) Call for China, India and ASEAN to public or privately ask the junta to negotiate with the democratic opposition for mutually acceptable solution, if the people of Burma reject its constitution.

(4) Call for China, India and ASEAN not to recognize the junta’s constitution, if the junta claims the victory despite the majority of the people against it.

(5) Call for China, Russia, and members of the UN Security Council to be ready to impose a binding resolution on Burma, if the junta unilaterally approve the constitution by cheating and use violence to crack down against protestors.

Aung Din

Executive Director

U.S. Campaign for Burma

aungdin@uscampaignforburma.org