President Aung San Suu Kyi? Probably Not Yet
Since Aung San Suu Kyi met on December 4 with former military dictator Than
Shwe, who ruled the country from 1992 to 2010 and was the architect of the 2008
constitution, there has been widespread speculation that she could become
president of Myanmar soon. These expectations were encouraged by a Facebook
post the same day by Nay Shwe Thway Aung, a grandson of Than Shwe who
facilitated the meeting, saying that Than Shwe accepted Aung San Suu Kyi as the
future leader of the country and that he pledged to support her if she works
for the development of the country.
Nay Shwe Thway Aung also posted the image of a 5,000 kyat bank note (just
under $4), with the signatures of Than Shwe, President Thein Sein, and Aung San
Suu Kyi on
Facebook.
Than Shwe’s
signature
is dated October 3, 2009, Thein Sein’s May 12, 2012, and Aung San Suu Kyi’s
November 19, 2015. Aung San Suu Kyi also said that she
reached
an agreement with the former dictator, but without spelling out details.
Many observers interpreted Than Shwe’s gesture as giving a green light to
the current military leaders to allow the amendment of the Section 59f of the
constitution, which bars Aung San Suu Kyi from the presidency because her two
sons are foreign citizens. At the same time, Aung Ko, a member of parliament
from the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party,
floated
the idea that she could become president if Section 59f is temporarily
suspended by the approval of the parliament with a simple majority vote. Many
believe this might be feasible.
However, even it is true that Than Shwe authorized military leaders to amend
Section 59f, the new parliament, which will take office at the end of January
2016, cannot amend the constitution immediately. According to the constitution,
the first order of business for the new parliament is electing chairmen of both
the Lower and Upper Houses. Next the Union Parliament will divide into three
groups to nominate three vice-presidential candidates. Then the Union
Parliament as a whole will serve as the Electoral College and select one of the
three vice-presidential candidates to be president.
As a result, the new parliament must elect the president before it can
consider amending the constitution at its first session. Also during the first
session, the new parliament will be busy debating the 2016-2017 budget, which
will be submitted by the outgoing government, and approving nominations for
more than 200 Union level positions, including cabinet ministers, that will be
submitted by the president-elect.
Even if the new parliament amends Section 59f with the support of the
military in the next session, a national referendum is needed for it to go into
effect. Amending this provision will be a long process and take several months,
if not years.
In addition, how much influence Than Shwe still has on the military leaders
and whether they will agree to make her president is also in question. The
offices of both President Thein Sein and Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing
said that they were not informed about the meeting between Than Shwe and Aung
San Suu Kyi in advance. Presidential spokesperson and Information Minister Ye
Htut
said,
“Let me tell you frankly, Senior-General Than Shwe is now retired. We have some
respect for him as he used to lead us. But he doesn’t have the right to reverse
the policies we are taking. If he [tried to], we would not accept it.”
The president’s office director Zaw Htay also told the Myanmar Review
Journal that the president was not informed in advance about the meeting and
that he never signed the 5,000 kyat bank note because it is
against
the law. Senior military officials told
The Irrawaddy that the
commander-in-chief and top military leaders were at Pyin Oo Lwin at the time of
the meeting and they were not informed about it in advance either. One unnamed
general from the military’s information unit said that Than Shwe is already retired
and has nothing to do with the military.
The idea of temporarily suspending Section 59f is also a pie in the sky
notion. The 2008 constitution does not allow suspension of its provisions
either permanently or temporarily. Adding the provision for “temporary
suspension” of the constitution would need to be added before it could be used.
Judging by the negative responses from the offices of the president and the
military commander, it is clear that for Aung San Suu Kyi to become president
depends solely on the goodwill of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and current
military leaders. It will take some time for her to build trust with the
military leaders and get their support.
On December 4, before Aung San Suu Kyi went to see Than Shwe in Naypyitaw,
Min Aung Hlaing delivered a speech at the Defense Service Academy in Pyin Oo
Lwin, at which he
spoke
about the military’s participation in politics. He said “since democracy
enhances one’s value, we will have to proceed with respect for the betterment
of the country with a reciprocal arrangement.” By stating “reciprocal
arrangement,”, Min Aung Hlaing made clear that as long as Aung San Suu Kyi and
her National League for Democracy party acknowledge the role of the military
and treat it with respect, the military will respond with the same attitude.
Mr. Aung Din is a former political prisoner in Burma and currently lives
in the United States. He serves as a consultant for Moemaka Multimedia, based in San
Francisco, and as senior adviser to the Open Myanmar Initiative (OMI), a
non-profit organization based in Yangon that promotes the right to information
and education. See more information about OMI here.
