Burma: Addressing the Challenge Ahead

Burma: Addressing the Challenges Ahead

U.S. Capitol Hill– Senate Room 6 (SC-6)

Friday, May 15^th 9am – 12:30pm

Panel #2: Rule of Law and Policy Options

Aung Din, Executive Director, U.S. Campaign for Burma
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Ladies and Gentlemen, Distinguished Guest,

You have heard about child soldier recruitment, forced labor practice and forced relocation, plight of refugees and IDPs, destruction of villages in Eastern Burma from the previous panelists and speakers before me. Now, I would like to touch some other important issues.

# First, I would like to bring your attention to the situation and position of the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, led by detained Nobel Peace Prize Recipient Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. As you are aware, NLD won a landslide victory in the 1990 election, but its election results was denied by the junta. Since then, NLD has been calling for the junta to convene the Parliament meeting and establish a meaningful dialogue between the military, NLD and ethnic representatives for sustainable national reconciliation. NLD has tried many ways and many times to engage with the junta. However, the military junta has always blocked meaningful participation of the NLD in its constitution writing process and an entire road map. Instead, the military junta has been consistently trying to eliminate the NLD from the political landscape. Despite severe harassment, arrest and attack by the junta, the NLD is still standing strongly and still the leading force of Burma’s nonviolent democracy movement.

The NLD held a special meeting at its Headquarter in Rangoon on April 28-29, 2009. All Centeral Executive Committee Members, except Vice Chairman U Tin Oo and General Secretary Daw Aung San Suu Kyi who are under house arrest, met with party leaders from all States and Divisions and Members of Parliament-elect and discussed current situation in Burma and the role of the NLD for two days. At the end of the meeting, NLD leadership was able to produce an important document, called the “Shwegondaing Declaration”, named referred to the Shwegongdaing Street, where the party Headquarters is situated. With this declaration, the NLD has claimed that it will consider to participating in the election, schedule in 2010, if the following three conditions are met.

(1) All political prisoners, including the leaders of the NLD, are unconditionally released.
(2) The provisions of the 2008 constitution which are not in accord with democratic principles are amended.

(3) All inclusive free and fair elections are held under international supervision.

All of us, all political forces inside and outside Burma have supported the NLD’s declaration and strongly believe that these conditions are the best solution to put our country on the path of real national reconciliation and democratization. We also know that the junta will not come voluntarily to meet these conditions without strong and collective pressure from the international community.

# Here, I would like to touch the constitution as the second issue. All of you will agree that all political prisoners should be released, and the election should be held under the international supervision. But, you may not understand why the NLD demands that the constitution should be revised. Many of you know that the constitution reserves 25% seats in the Parliament for the military personals, to be appointed by the Commander-in-Chief. And many think that this is acceptable under current situation. Actually, there are so many provisions that are not acceptable by Burma’s democracy forces. Let me clarify more.

This constitution grants the supreme power to the military’s Commander-in-Chief. He is granted power to administer the military affairs freely, including budget, recruitment, procurement, appointment and promotion, troop positioning, etc. He will appoint 25% of the seats in National Parliament and all lower level Parliaments at States and Regions. He will appoint three ministers, for Defense, Home Affairs and Border Affairs, in the Central Government and lower level administrations at States and Regions, Districts and Self-Administered Division and Zones. He can even appoint more military officials if he is requested. He is the Chief of all armed forces in Burma and can simply declare a “state of emergency” if there is an attempt to amend the constitution, and seize control of all powers. He has no term limits, no age limit for retirement, and will be selected by the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), in which 7 out of 11 members are himself and his appointees. Military personals who are accused of committing crimes will be tried by the military courts, not by the state judiciary system.

The Parliament will be convened once a year, and it does not have power to debate the military affairs. Military affairs and budget will be discussed by appointed military officials in the Parliament and the Parliament has to adopt the legislation regarding military affairs, submitted by the appointed military officials. The Parliament also does not have power to reject the nominees of the Presidents to serve in his Cabinet, various Departments and Courts as well as budget. Actually, the Parliament is just a rubber stamp of the President and the Commander-in-Chief.

The President will have certain degree of power, but he can only be elected with the favor of the Commander-in-Chief. 440 members of the Lower House and 224 Members of the Upper House will combine to become an Electoral College and it will be divided to three groups, (1) 330 elected members of the Lower House, (2) 168 elected members of the Upper House, and (3) 166 appointed military members from both Houses. All groups submit a candidate each and three candidates will be voted by the whole Electoral College. As the constitution describes the well acquaintance of military affairs as one of the qualifications of the President and the military has a chance to nominate a military official as its candidate, the President elected by the Electoral College will surely be a former or current military official. As the Commander-in-Chief controls 166 votes in the Electoral College, no one can be elected without his blessing.

Clearly, the future Burma after the 2010 election will be a state controlled by a small state within. There will be two power centers, the President, who will run the show, and the Commander-in-Chief, who will pull the string behind the scene. The military itself is a small, but powerful state within the state, which controls everything and stands above the law. All the people of Burma, including ethnic nationalities will become the subjects of the military. Amending the constitution is almost impossible as it requires OVER 75% of vote in the Parliament.

As you are aware, there are eight major ethnic nationalities, and dozens of races in Burma. All of them had their own territory, culture, language, history, and significant number of population. They all want to stay in the country, but they want the country to be built as a Federal Republic with equality among all ethnic nationalities. Some took up arms and have been fighting in civil wars for many decades to claim for equality, autonomy, and ethnic rights. This constitution makes these ethnic nationalities subordinates of the Burman majority. The constitution grants the President the power to appoint the Prime Ministers of the states, and their cabinet members. Military officials, appointed by the Commander-in-Chief, will be sitting unelected in the State Parliaments, and hold the key positions of Security and Border Affairs in the State Cabinets. The President has power to appoint judges to run the judiciary system in the States. The ethnic nationalities have no power to choose their leaders, their judiciary system will be run by the Judges, appointed by the President, and their State Parliaments will be controlled by military officials. The Burmese military will continue to control their regions and administer their daily lives.

# That leads to a dangerous situation now. Since 1989, more than a dozen ethnic armed groups have entered into a ceasefire agreement with the junta, expecting that political discussion will be followed as next step. However, there were no political dialogues to discuss their demands. Even though they were allowed to attend the national convention and submit their demands, the junta rejected them. Now, the constitution was approved by force and frauds without considering their rights. And now, the junta is forcing them to reduce their troops and transfer them under the control of Burma’s army. The junta has issued an order to ethnic ceasefire groups, operating along the China-Burma border, to reduce their troop level from current 40,000 fully-equipped soldiers to about 7,000 and transfer them under the control of the Commander-in-Chief by October this year. After that, the junta will transform these troops as the “Border Guard Forces”, commanded by the junta’s officials and under the direct control of the regional military commands.

We have learned from the history. Reducing the large number of ethnic armed forces by order, without securing jobs for them and without granting their rights they have been fighting for decades, will not achieve the happy ending. Refusal of these armed groups to the order of the junta will be the escalating of civil wars in China-Burma border. Emergence of several new armed groups, defected from major armed forces, are also possible and they might become war lords, drug producers and traffickers and criminal gangs, as well as small revolutionary forces without anybody control. Without effective intervention from the international community, wars, bloodshed and violence in Burma will be exploded and compounded, and the stability of the region will be threatened.

# Sadly, when the situation in Burma today is alarmingly deteriorating and moving down a dangerous path, the international response has been frozen since the U.S. has started its slow and indefinite process of policy review on Burma. Many business and pro-junta groups are also taking this opportunity to change the current U.S. policy to their favor of lifting sanctions, engaging with the junta and recognizing the 2010 election. Last month, Nobel Peace Prize Recipient and Arch Bishop Desmond Tutu of South Africa, who wrote an opinion piece in the Washington Post, correctly reminded that I quote “the voices of those it (the regime) has silenced must be heard as if the walls of their jails did not exist” Unquote.

Now, let me read the recommendations made by two prominent opposition groups inside Burma to the U.S. Administration regarding the policy review. The All Burma Monks’ Alliance and the 88 Generation Students, two groups which were instrumental of organizing peaceful protests in many parts of Burma in August and September 2007, widely known as the Saffron Revolution, have sent a letter to Secretary Clinton on May 5, 2009. Two figures wanted by the junta dead or alive, Monk leader Ashin Aww Bar Sa and student leader Tun Myint Aung, signed the letter from their hiding places, as they felt critical to relay their message to Secretary Clinton, while their arrest could be imminent. They have recommended to Secretary Clinton as follows.

(1) We believe that no sanctions should be lifted on the junta until political prisoners have been released and a meaningful dialogue between the junta, the NLD and representatives of our many ethnic groups has finalized a new constitution.

(2) We believe that U.S. leadership with strong diplomatic effort to organize other nations, especially Burma’s neighbors China, India and ASEAN, as well as the EU to work together to address the situation in Burma with common interest, shared responsibility, unified action, and clear benchmark will be the best way to make sanctions and engagement effective and produce positive results.

(3) We support the direct engagement between the U.S. and Burma’s military junta. However, such direct engagement should reach to the sole decision maker of the junta, Senior General Than Shwe.

(4) We suggest you should consider additional measures that include the addition of Burmese crony businessmen and the junta’s political surrogates to visa ban and financial sanctions lists; and calling for a global arms embargo at the U.N. Security Council; if the junta still refuses to implement the meaningful change.

I hope Secretary Clinton hear their voices, which represent those who are silenced by the junta, and put into serious consideration, as suggested by Bishop Tutu.

Thanks,

Aung Din