Regional politicians in Kayin State receive training on how to campaign
in Myanmar’s November 8 elections. Source: Remko Tanis, used under a
creative commons license.
Elections
in Myanmar: Winners, Losers, and the Future
Before the November 8 election in Burma,
or Mynamar, I predicted that the
National League for Democracy party (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, would win
the largest number of seats, but not enough to form the government. I also
predicted that Myanmar’s ethnic parties would win majorities in their states
and thus hold a strong bargaining position with the major parties for the
upcoming presidential election, expected in February 2016.
I was wrong. I underestimated the
magnitude of anger and hatred of the people against the military and the ruling
Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). I also underestimated the
popularity of Aung San Suu Kyi. The election result represents the people’s
retribution against the military, which kept them under its boots for decades.
The winners of this election are clearly
Aung San Suu Kyi, the NLD, and the people of Myanmar. The losers are President
Thein Sein, the USDP, the military, and the ethnic parties. The future of the
country will be shaped by the NLD and the military, represented by Aung San Suu
Kyi and Commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing.
The
Winners:
Undoubtedly Aung San Suu Kyi is the
biggest winner. All NLD candidates held her picture high, repeated her
speeches, and praised her loudly to convince constituents to vote for them.
They won because of her. Actually, it looks like she ran in all constituencies
and she singlehandedly crushed all other candidates. This election was a
referendum on Aung San Suu Kyi and whether she is trusted by the people to
govern the country.
The people of Myanmar are also winners.
They have quietly and successfully struck back against the military and the
USDP in a non-violent way after decades of abuse, mismanagement, corruption,
and human rights violations.
The NLD, which was harassed and attacked
by the military regime for the last 25 years, now has a chance to rule the
country. As the majority party, the NLD will hold the chairmanship of the lower
house and upper house and will be able to nominate two vice-presidential
candidates. An NLD member will become the next president of Myanmar. All chief
ministers of the 14 regional governments will be appointed by the NLD
president. Twelve of 14 state and regional parliaments -- the exception is
Rakhine State and Shan State-- will be controlled by the NLD. The NLD now has
an opportunity to prove that it can govern the country.
The
Losers:
The military is the biggest loser.
Military leaders expected to continue running the country for another 50 years
with their carefully crafted 2008 constitution, using the USDP, the party of
retired generals, as its political front. Even under this constitution, which
allows the military to hold significant power in all of the country’s affairs,
the military will not be able to exercise full control.
President Thein Sein also was handed a
sharp defeat. Although the constitution does not allow the president to
campaign for the party, he violated the rules and tried hard to convince the
people that the USDP, under his leadership and with strong backing of the
military, was the best for the country. Thein Sein made numerous tours around
the country, together with Commander Min Aung Hlaing, during the campaign
period. He even said in his last monthly radio speech that he would try to
amend the constitution to allow all cities to be run by elected bodies in his
second term, instead of township administrators who are employees of the
Ministry of Home Affairs. Now, he cannot do any of those things.
The USDP comes away a big loser as well.
Its representatives claimed that they were the ones who changed the country
from dictatorship to democracy. However, the people expressed their views
clearly through their votes, making clear they want change, not only in the
political system, but also in who their rulers are.
Ethnic parties were defeated handily,
except the Arakan National Party, which won a majority in Rakhine State. Most
ethnic parties are divided within their ranks, conflicted with personal
interests and rivalry, and proved unable to convince a majority of their
constituents to trust them.
The
Future:
The future of the country will be shaped
by the NLD and the military, at least for the next five years. Although the NLD
will be able to lead the legislature, the military still controls 25 percent of
the seats in these bodies and it can block any attempt to amend the
constitution. The president will have to work with the ministers of Home
Affairs, Defense, and Border Area Affairs, who will be appointed by the
commander-in-chief.
In the powerful 11-member National
Defense and Security Council, which has the authority to appoint the
commander-in-chief, the military already has a majority of six seats and is
able to undermine the president’s agenda. In this power-sharing dynamic between
the military and the NLD, the political future of Myanmar is uncertain.
Aung San Suu Kyi and Min Aung Hlaing
will need to modify their mindsets to be able to accept each other, and only
then “the two can tango.”
If Aung San Suu Kyi rushes to amend the
constitution with an aim to reduce or abolish the powers of the military,
tension and distrust will emerge on both sides, which could lead the country to
chaos. If the military is not patient enough to engage Aung San Suu Kyi, and
tries to find other ways to cling to power, the situation will be more
dangerous. Both sides know well the danger of the extreme. Aung San Suu Kyi knows
the risks and therefore she has requested dialogue with Min Aung Hlaing and
Thein Sein. This is a smart move. Positive and productive relations between the
two are critical for ensuring a peaceful political transition in the coming
months.
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